Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 29, 2024 and Aug 28, 2024)
Closed Aug 28, 2024 08:00PM (7 months ago)
China, which considers Taiwan an inviolable part of its territory, has stated that while it seeks peaceful reunification, it is committed to returning Taiwan to the PRC “by any means necessary” and has threatened invasion if Taiwan declares independence (CFR, The Guardian, Reuters). After the Democratic People’s Party (DPP) won the Taiwanese presidential election for a third consecutive term, China increased pressure on Taiwan and conducted military drills surrounding the island as “punishment” for an inauguration speech they characterized as separatist provocation (The Diplomat, Congressional Research Service, Global Times). These drills heightened fears about the prospect of a blockade, which some analysts view as China's most viable route to unification with Taiwan (War on the Rocks, Atlantic Council).
This question is a resolved time period from Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | |
No | 100% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 65 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
Number of Forecasts | 92 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 228 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |