Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 29, 2024 and Aug 28, 2024)

Started Jul 29, 2024 07:00PM
Closed Aug 28, 2024 08:00PM (7 months ago)

Topics

International Diplomacy & Conflict Artificial Intelligence

Seasons

2024 Season

China, which considers Taiwan an inviolable part of its territory, has stated that while it seeks peaceful reunification, it is committed to returning Taiwan to the PRC “by any means necessary” and has threatened invasion if Taiwan declares independence (CFR, The Guardian, Reuters). After the Democratic People’s Party (DPP) won the Taiwanese presidential election for a third consecutive term, China increased pressure on Taiwan and conducted military drills surrounding the island as “punishment” for an inauguration speech they characterized as separatist provocation (The Diplomat, Congressional Research Service, Global Times). These drills heightened fears about the prospect of a blockade, which some analysts view as China's most viable route to unification with Taiwan (War on the Rocks, Atlantic Council).

Taiwan is home to 92% of the world’s most advanced semiconductor manufacturing capacity, so any disruption would impact global supply chains (Semiconductor Industry Association). Consequently, a blockade or invasion of Taiwan would cause serious damage to the world economy, with estimates suggesting that over two trillion dollars of economic activity would be at risk (Rhodium Group, CSIS).

Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved using reputable news media reports. An invasion would entail an attempt by the People’s Liberation Army to land on, occupy, and/or capture the main island of Taiwan. A blockade would involve the use of ships or planes to prevent people and goods from entering or leaving Taiwan, thereby cutting off its access to the rest of the world. A blockade or invasion need not be successful for it to count towards the resolution of this question. For the purposes of this question, a military attack would require the use of weaponry by the People’s Liberation Army against a civilian or military target. A target on the main island of Taiwan must be hit for the attack to count towards resolution. Cyberattacks will not be considered towards the resolution of this question.