If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Started
Mar 17, 2025 05:00PM
Closing Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM (in 9 months)
Closing Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM (in 9 months)
Seasons
This question was created in collaboration with the RAND Forecasting Initiative, Glimt, and Metaculus, and has been posted simultaneously on all three platforms for comparative purposes.
The Russo-Ukrainian conflict has seen numerous attempts at peace negotiations since its escalation in February 2022. Early talks were held in Belarus and Turkey in February 2022, but these negotiations stalled due to disagreements over key issues like territorial control and NATO membership (New York Times, Al Jazeera). Recently, U.S. President Donald Trump has been involved in efforts to restart negotiations, following a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin (The Guardian). In February 2025, negotiations between the U.S. and Ukraine over access to Ukraine’s critical minerals in exchange for security guarantees fell through after the two countries’ presidents clashed in the Oval Office (NBC News). The two countries met again in Saudi Arabia on 11 March 2025, and Ukraine agreed to support the U.S.’s proposal for a 30-day ceasefire with Russia (Reuters). In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he supports the idea of the ceasefire proposal, but that there are still outstanding questions to address (BBC). Russia's agreement is still required for the ceasefire to take effect.
Resolution Criteria:
This question is conditional and will only resolve if a comprehensive bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine takes effect before 00:00 January 1, 2026 Ukraine Time (UTC+2). If no such ceasefire occurs by that date, the question will be voided.
The question will resolve based on the number of consecutive days the ceasefire remains in effect before being abandoned. The ceasefire will be considered to have ended when any of the following occur:
- Either government officially withdraws from the ceasefire or declares the ceasefire terminated.
- Major military operations resume that are acknowledged by international observers to constitute a breakdown of the ceasefire (see Notes).
- The ceasefire reaches its predetermined end date without being extended or renewed.
Notes:
- If multiple ceasefires occur, only the first qualifying ceasefire will be considered for this question.
- Isolated or minor violations that don't lead to a declared collapse of the agreement will not be considered as ending the ceasefire period.
- The question will be resolved using the count of calendar days the ceasefire is in effect, beginning with the first day the ceasefire goes into effect regardless of the time of day the ceasefire starts. The day military activity resumes will not be included in the count.
- Any extensions or renewals of the ceasefire will be considered part of the same ceasefire, provided the ceasefire period is continuous.
- “International observers” includes the UN, OSCE, any monitoring mechanisms established by the ceasefire, reports from multiple major global news agencies (i.e., Reuters, AP, or AFP), or official statements from at least three G7 governments.
- The complete ceasefire period need not occur during 2025, for example if a ceasefire was to start in late December 2025, a continuous period lasting into 2026 would count.
Drag the possible answers to the probability you think each has of occurring. The probability allocated must sum to 100%.