In the next six months, will U.S. and China announce the establishment of an ongoing bilateral dialog mechanism that includes discussions of emerging technologies?

Started Jan 31, 2022 01:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 29, 2022 03:59AM UTC

The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence argues that establishing a regular, high-level diplomatic dialogue with China about artificial intelligence is key to developing and executing a strategy on how to remain competitive and safe as AI technology changes the world (NSCAI Report Chapter 9). Examples of ongoing bilateral dialog mechanisms are the Strategic and Economic Dialog under President Obama (National Committee on American Foreign Policy—NCAFP), the Comprehensive Economic Dialog under President Trump, and the Strategic Economic Dialog under President George W. Bush. Emerging technologies (e.g. artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and biotech) must be a core component of the dialog structure.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.01%
No 98.99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 80
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60
Number of Forecasts 282
Average for questions older than 6 months: 222
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Scored Periods

Scores for forecasts between Final Crowd Forecast
Jan 31, 2022 01:00PM UTC - Jun 29, 2022 03:59AM UTC 1%

Consensus Trend

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username