In the next six months, will U.S. and China announce the establishment of an ongoing bilateral dialog mechanism that includes discussions of emerging technologies?

Started Jan 31, 2022 01:00PM
Closed Jun 29, 2022 03:59AM (3 years ago)

The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence argues that establishing a regular, high-level diplomatic dialogue with China about artificial intelligence is key to developing and executing a strategy on how to remain competitive and safe as AI technology changes the world (NSCAI Report Chapter 9). Examples of ongoing bilateral dialog mechanisms are the Strategic and Economic Dialog under President Obama (National Committee on American Foreign Policyβ€”NCAFP), the Comprehensive Economic Dialog under President Trump, and the Strategic Economic Dialog under President George W. Bush. Emerging technologies (e.g. artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and biotech) must be a core component of the dialog structure.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.01%
No 98.99%

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Number of Forecasters 80
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60
Number of Forecasts 282
Average for questions older than 6 months: 228
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

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Scores for forecasts between Final Crowd Forecast
Jan 31, 2022 01:00PM - Jun 29, 2022 03:59AM 1%

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- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Jan 31, 2022 8:00AM EST (148 days before close, question was 0% complete)
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