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International Diplomacy & Conflict
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months)
From Russia to the South China Sea and around the globe, these questions forecast conflict, diplomatic agreements, and how these events will shape our world.
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Iran Nuclear Program (11)
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Iran-VNSAs (7)
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Question
Crowd Forecast
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
83
·
535
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Closing
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
·
94
·
447
5%
Chance
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?
Closing
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
·
91
·
512
85%
Chance
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
Closing
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
·
96
·
620
83%
Chance
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Closing
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
·
87
·
524
7%
Chance
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Closing
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
·
75
·
552
2%
Chance
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Closing
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
·
74
·
507
0%
Chance
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
Closing
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
·
47
·
350
3%
Chance
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Closing
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
·
153
·
1306
22%
Chance
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
73
·
536
6%
Chance
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