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International Diplomacy & Conflict

Closing

Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC (10 days)

From Russia to the South China Sea and around the globe, these questions forecast conflict, diplomatic agreements, and how these events will shape our world.

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Crowd Forecast

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC · 60 · 224

34%

Chance

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 56 · 233

54%

Chance

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 115 · 409

1%

Chance

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Closing Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 45 · 225

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Closing Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 142 · 634

1%

Chance

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Closing Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 107 · 614

98%

Chance

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Closing Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC · 121 · 740

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Closing Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC · 90 · 588

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 91 · 762

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Closing Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 111 · 666

12%

Chance