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Iran: Threats & Influence

Closing

Jan 01, 2026 04:59AM UTC (1 year)

Forecasting questions related to Iran's nuclear development, foreign relations, and influence on violent non-state actors.

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Crowd Forecast

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Closing Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 111 · 671

13%

Chance

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 100 · 762

10%

Chance

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 86 · 658

1%

Chance

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 77 · 689

10%

Chance

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 117 · 962

1%

Chance

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 120 · 975

1%

Chance

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 65 · 674

0%

Chance

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 93 · 1014

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 110 · 978

0%

Chance

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 107 · 896

1%

Chance