RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 01, 2022 01:52PM UTC	Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022?	0.15194
Jan 01, 2022 01:49PM UTC	Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021?	0.047714
Jan 01, 2022 01:40PM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	-0.00302
Jan 01, 2022 12:59PM UTC	Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?	0.545378
Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021)	-0.00241
Nov 18, 2021 03:56PM UTC	What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work?	-0.040917
Nov 18, 2021 12:12PM UTC	When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?	0.030337
Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021)	0.0
Nov 16, 2021 02:24PM UTC	What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for China be in the first two quarters of 2021?	-0.129358
Nov 16, 2021 12:53PM UTC	What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?	0.492629
Sep 23, 2021 10:19AM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021?	0.118254
Jul 01, 2021 05:30PM UTC	Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?	0.003258
Apr 17, 2021 09:56PM UTC	How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between January 1 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?	-0.376244

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