Confirmed previous forecast
1.992905
Relative Brier Score
259
Forecasts
6
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 37 | 340 | 259 | 780 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 61 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 37 | 73 | 57 | 145 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 25 |
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Power Forecaster - Aug 2024
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
4%
(0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
1%
(0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
1%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025
93%
(0%)
No
Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025
92%
(0%)
No
Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 1, 2024 to Sep 1, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
Sep 1, 2024 to Sep 1, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
16%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 1, 2024 to Sep 1, 2025
84%
(0%)
No
Sep 1, 2024 to Sep 1, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
35%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
6%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
55%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files