RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 07:41PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	51%	24%	+27%	-8%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations	49%	42%	+7%	+4%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 08:42PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	2%	1%	+1%	+0%
Oman	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Qatar	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Saudi Arabia	2%	2%	+0%	+0%
Tunisia	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 08:42PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	1%	+2%	+0%
No	97%	99%	-2%	+0%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 08:42PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	1%	+1%	+0%
No	98%	99%	-1%	+0%

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 08:47PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 24%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%	0%	2%	-2%	+1%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%	22%	4%	+18%	-17%
More than or equal to 28%	78%	94%	-16%	+16%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 08:51PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	41%	36%	+5%	-6%
No	59%	64%	-5%	+6%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 08:55PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana	4%	3%	+1%	+0%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells	4%	4%	+0%	+0%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 09:11PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 09:32PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	20%	7%	+13%	+0%
Armenia	1%	2%	-1%	+1%
Georgia	1%	4%	-3%	+1%
Kazakhstan	1%	2%	-1%	+1%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 09:43PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	16%	Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025	Dec 30, 2024	22%	-6%	+14%
No	84%	Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025	Dec 30, 2024	78%	+6%	-14%

Aadebamiwa77

Abidemi Adebamiwa

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