RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 31, 2024 09:50PM UTC
(30 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	67%	Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025	Sep 30, 2024	54%	+13%	-13%
No	33%	Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025	Sep 30, 2024	46%	-13%	+13%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 31, 2024 09:52PM UTC
(30 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025	Sep 30, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025	Sep 30, 2024	100%	+0%	+0%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 31, 2024 10:32PM UTC
(30 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	16%	11%	+5%	-6%
No	84%	89%	-5%	+6%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 31, 2024 10:34PM UTC
(30 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kharkiv	16%	4%	+12%	-1%
Kyiv	4%	1%	+3%	+0%
Odesa	2%	1%	+1%	-2%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 31, 2024 10:35PM UTC
(30 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025	Sep 30, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025	Sep 30, 2024	100%	+0%	+0%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 03:12AM UTC
(30 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	60%	22%	+38%	-15%
No	40%	78%	-38%	+15%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 03:12AM UTC
(30 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	46%	38%	+8%	-3%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	31%	56%	-25%	+3%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	23%	6%	+17%	+0%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 03:12AM UTC
(30 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	97%	96%	+1%	+2%
No	3%	4%	-1%	-2%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 03:13AM UTC
(30 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	12%	6%	+6%	-2%
No	88%	94%	-6%	+2%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 03:13AM UTC
(30 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	32%	25%	+7%	-3%
No	68%	75%	-7%	+3%

Aadebamiwa77

Abidemi Adebamiwa

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