RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2025 06:12PM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	51%	11%	+40%	-4%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations	49%	35%	+14%	+8%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2025 06:12PM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	41%	39%	+2%	+2%
No	59%	61%	-2%	-2%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 1, 2025 04:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2025 06:12PM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana	4%	1%	+3%	-1%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells	4%	2%	+2%	-1%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo	1%	0%	+1%	+0%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo	1%	0%	+1%	+0%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2025 06:12PM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2025 06:12PM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	20%	7%	+13%	+0%
Armenia	1%	2%	-1%	+1%
Georgia	1%	4%	-3%	+0%
Kazakhstan	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2025 06:12PM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	16%	Jan 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026	Apr 30, 2025 06:12PM	7%	+9%	+1%
No	84%	Jan 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026	Apr 30, 2025 06:12PM	93%	-9%	-1%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2025 04:00AM
(17 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2025 06:12PM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	17%	Jan 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026	Apr 30, 2025 06:12PM	9%	+8%	-2%
No	83%	Jan 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026	Apr 30, 2025 06:12PM	91%	-8%	+2%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 3, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2025 06:13PM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	16%	10%	+6%	-11%
No	84%	90%	-6%	+11%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2025 06:13PM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	46%	12%	+34%	-3%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	31%	85%	-54%	+4%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	23%	3%	+20%	-1%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2025 06:13PM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	12%	2%	+10%	+0%
No	88%	98%	-10%	+0%

Aadebamiwa77

Abidemi Adebamiwa

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