Forecasted Questions
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2024 03:02PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Aug 29, 2024 03:02PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 3% | 1% | +2% | -1% |
No | 97% | 99% | -2% | +1% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2024 03:04PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Aug 29, 2024 03:04PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 4% | 1% | +3% | -1% |
No | 96% | 99% | -3% | +1% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2024 03:05PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Aug 29, 2024 03:05PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
No | 99% | 98% | +1% | +0% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2024 03:06PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Aug 29, 2024 03:06PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kuwait | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Oman | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Qatar | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Saudi Arabia | 2% | 3% | -1% | -1% |
Tunisia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2024 03:07PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Aug 29, 2024 03:07PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
No | 98% | 99% | -1% | +0% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2024 03:20PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Aug 29, 2024 03:20PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 12% | Aug 29, 2024 to Aug 29, 2025 | Nov 29, 2024 | 8% | +4% | -1% |
No | 88% | Aug 29, 2024 to Aug 29, 2025 | Nov 29, 2024 | 92% | -4% | +1% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2024 03:21PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Aug 29, 2024 03:21PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 4% | Aug 29, 2024 to Aug 29, 2025 | Nov 29, 2024 | 5% | -1% | +1% |
No | 96% | Aug 29, 2024 to Aug 29, 2025 | Nov 29, 2024 | 95% | +1% | -1% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2024 03:21PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Aug 29, 2024 03:21PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 9% | 5% | +4% | -2% |
No | 91% | 95% | -4% | +2% |
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2024 03:23PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Aug 29, 2024 03:23PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kharkiv | 4% | 4% | +0% | -1% |
Kyiv | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Odesa | 1% | 1% | +0% | -2% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2024 03:23PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Aug 29, 2024 03:23PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Estonia | 3% | 2% | +1% | +1% |
Latvia | 3% | 1% | +2% | +0% |
Lithuania | 3% | 1% | +2% | +0% |