Comment deleted on Oct 18, 2023 09:46PM UTC
1.041351
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Russia-Ukraine War
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
Yes
Files
welcome @Amelia seems like your rationale would provide a forecast closer to the NO instead of a 85% YES, maybe that`s what you tried to give for this first forecast....
Files
New Badge
Why do you think you're right?
Among all the recent news and Khan's arrest, I believe the population will not be satisfied having him win on the next elections. Having said that, I do believe corruption and the military could get involved in the elective process thus, them not being truthful to what the population wants. If the military has decided to support Khan and from now until January they carry a political strategy that suits the arrest and conspiration, he may be re-elected. That is why I believe it has more chances of being re-elected than not.
Why might you be wrong?
If the outcome doesn't follow my predictions, it may be because the population has been listened and there has not been a political washing of the recent events surrounding Khan. Also, if the conspiration theories don't stand out and the US continues to do open statements against him, his credibility will be erased.