RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

You quit this question on Oct 29, 2024 08:19PM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 16, 2024 08:36AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	Oct 16, 2024 to Apr 16, 2025	Jan 16, 2025	4%	+0%	-2%
No	96%	Oct 16, 2024 to Apr 16, 2025	Jan 16, 2025	96%	+0%	+2%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 27, 2024 09:11PM UTC
(26 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	20%	24%	-4%	-3%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations	33%	40%	-7%	+0%

What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2024 07:06PM UTC
(21 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 9%	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive	13%	19%	-6%	-1%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive	71%	72%	-1%	+1%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive	15%	8%	+7%	+0%
More than or equal to 40%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 09:21PM UTC
(20 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
42 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2024 05:55PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 06, 2024 10:10PM UTC
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana	0%	3%	-3%	+0%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells	5%	5%	+1%	+0%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
33 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 08, 2024 12:23AM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	2%	-2%	+1%
No	100%	98%	+2%	-1%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
20 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 08, 2024 12:25AM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Latvia	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Lithuania	1%	2%	-1%	+0%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
39 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 13, 2024 03:21AM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	100%	+0%	+0%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
24 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 13, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kharkiv	0%	3%	-3%	-1%
Kyiv	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Odesa	0%	2%	-2%	+0%

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