Forecasted Questions
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
You quit this question on Oct 29, 2024 08:19PM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 16, 2024 08:36AM UTC
(20 days ago)
Oct 16, 2024 08:36AM UTC
(20 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | Oct 16, 2024 to Apr 16, 2025 | Jan 16, 2025 | 5% | -1% | -2% |
| No | 96% | Oct 16, 2024 to Apr 16, 2025 | Jan 16, 2025 | 95% | +1% | +2% |
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
As of Nov 1, 2024 05:57PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 18, 2024 05:24AM UTC
(19 days ago)
Oct 18, 2024 05:24AM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 45% | Oct 18, 2024 to Apr 18, 2025 | Nov 18, 2024 | 51% | -6% | -3% |
| No | 55% | Oct 18, 2024 to Apr 18, 2025 | Nov 18, 2024 | 49% | +6% | +3% |
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 21, 2024 08:47AM UTC
(15 days ago)
Oct 21, 2024 08:47AM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana | 0% | 3% | -3% | +1% |
| Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells | 2% | 4% | -2% | +0% |
| Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo | 0% | 1% | -1% | +1% |
| Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
32 Forecasts
32 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 21, 2024 08:51AM UTC
(15 days ago)
Oct 21, 2024 08:51AM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts
19 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 10:06PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 10:06PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 0% | 2% | -2% | 0% |
| Latvia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
Forecast Count:
38 Forecasts
38 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 03:32PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Oct 26, 2024 03:32PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 100% | +0% | +0% |
What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 03:38PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Oct 26, 2024 03:38PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 49 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| Between 50 and 59, inclusive | 16% | 12% | +4% | -1% |
| Between 60 and 69, inclusive | 56% | 55% | +1% | +2% |
| Between 70 and 79, inclusive | 25% | 31% | -6% | -1% |
| More than or equal to 80 | 3% | 2% | +1% | +0% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 27, 2024 09:11PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Oct 27, 2024 09:11PM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Togo | 20% | 25% | -5% | -2% |
| Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | 33% | 35% | -2% | -5% |
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
23 Forecasts
23 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 08:26PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Oct 28, 2024 08:26PM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharkiv | 0% | 4% | -4% | +0% |
| Kyiv | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Odesa | 0% | 3% | -3% | +0% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts
14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 08:22PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 08:22PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |