Forecasted Questions
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts
15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 13, 2024 11:55PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Nov 13, 2024 11:55PM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 15, 2024 04:33PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Nov 15, 2024 04:33PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 49 | 0% | 1% | -1% | -1% |
| Between 50 and 59, inclusive | 14% | 13% | +1% | +0% |
| Between 60 and 69, inclusive | 56% | 51% | +5% | -1% |
| Between 70 and 79, inclusive | 27% | 34% | -7% | +2% |
| More than or equal to 80 | 3% | 2% | +1% | +0% |
Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 03:31PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Nov 18, 2024 03:31PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 62% | 38% | +24% | +2% |
| No | 38% | 62% | -24% | -2% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
21 Forecasts
21 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 03:36PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Nov 18, 2024 03:36PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 7% | 7% | +0% | +0% |
| Armenia | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
| Georgia | 6% | 4% | +2% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 21, 2024 03:54PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Nov 21, 2024 03:54PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 32% | 35% | -3% | +0% |
| No | 68% | 65% | +3% | +0% |
Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 21, 2024 06:14PM UTC
(22 hours ago)
Nov 21, 2024 06:14PM UTC
(22 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 40% | 37% | +3% | +11% |
| No | 60% | 63% | -3% | -11% |
Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 21, 2024 06:33PM UTC
(22 hours ago)
Nov 21, 2024 06:33PM UTC
(22 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 45% | 31% | +14% | +6% |
| No | 55% | 69% | -14% | -6% |