RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 24, 2024 11:03AM UTC
(30 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 24, 2024 11:16AM UTC
(30 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Latvia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Lithuania	0%	2%	-2%	+0%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 24, 2024 11:16AM UTC
(30 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana	3%	3%	+0%	+0%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells	4%	4%	+0%	+0%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 24, 2024 11:22AM UTC
(30 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kharkiv	0%	2%	-2%	-1%
Kyiv	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
Odesa	0%	2%	-2%	+0%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2024 10:42AM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	0%	1%	-1%	-1%
Oman	0%	1%	-1%	-1%
Qatar	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Saudi Arabia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Tunisia	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2024 10:44AM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Nov 30, 2024 to May 30, 2025	Dec 30, 2024	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	Nov 30, 2024 to May 30, 2025	Dec 30, 2024	99%	+1%	+0%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(6 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2024 03:36PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	3%	-3%	-1%
No	100%	97%	+3%	+1%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2024 04:13PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	Dec 4, 2024 to Jun 4, 2025	Jan 4, 2025	1%	+2%	-1%
No	97%	Dec 4, 2024 to Jun 4, 2025	Jan 4, 2025	99%	-2%	+1%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 08, 2024 06:39PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Dec 8, 2024 to Jun 8, 2025	Jan 8, 2025	11%	-6%	+3%
No	95%	Dec 8, 2024 to Jun 8, 2025	Jan 8, 2025	89%	+6%	-3%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 08, 2024 06:39PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	20%	16%	+4%	-1%
No	80%	84%	-4%	+1%

DanAGS

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