RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 18, 2024 06:45PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	8%	9%	-1%	+0%
Su-35 fighter jets	4%	7%	-3%	+0%

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 21, 2024 02:45PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 24%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%	0%	2%	-2%	+1%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%	5%	6%	-1%	-2%
More than or equal to 28%	95%	92%	+3%	+1%

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 22, 2024 03:51PM UTC
(14 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Latvia	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Lithuania	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 24, 2024 03:28PM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana	3%	3%	+0%	+1%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells	4%	4%	+0%	+0%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 03:31PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Oman	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Qatar	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Saudi Arabia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Tunisia	0%	1%	-1%	0%

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 03:40PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	28%	+2%	+7%
No	70%	72%	-2%	-7%

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2024 03:35PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	Nov 4, 2024 to May 4, 2025	Dec 4, 2024	4%	-1%	0%
No	97%	Nov 4, 2024 to May 4, 2025	Dec 4, 2024	96%	+1%	0%

DanAGS