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GavrielK

About:

I work on research and project strategy for a vaccine research policy organization, before which I studied physics and mechanical engineering. I was introduced to forecasting through the effective altruist movement, particularly the communities around Manifold Markets and Metaculus.

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-0.001831

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1

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Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War

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Putin is 70--the likelihood of death per year for a 70-year-old man is ~2% and I'm using that as a rough base rate. (https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html). Then there are the potential odds of assassination or overthrow. Putin's administration has tight control over the Russian media and political system, so it's a small chance of either of those things happening, but if the war in Ukraine continues to go badly for Russia, I think it raises the odds of a successful popular revolt or a coup from political underlings.

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