Confirmed previous forecast
2.725396
Relative Brier Score
149
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 2 | 23 | 11 | 214 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 2 | 18 | 6 | 64 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Oct 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Yes
0%
(0%)
No
Files
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Sep 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-70%)
Kharkiv
0%
(-10%)
Kyiv
0%
(-40%)
Odesa
Given the Russians are currently focusing the majority of their efforts and resources on the Donbass region, and on grinding the Ukranians in the Kursk region, a major ground offensive to attack Kharkiv, Kyiv and/or Odesa is very unlikely.
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Oracle - Bronze
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard 3 months in a row.
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Aug 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
Given China's current stance on Taiwan, which has not been violent to the point of a blockade or invasion, it is extremely unlikely any such altercations will occur within the year, unless some unpredictable event drastically changes the scenario and forces the CPC into an unexpected violent move.