Given China's current stance on Taiwan, which has not been violent to the point of a blockade or invasion, it is extremely unlikely any such altercations will occur within the year, unless some unpredictable event drastically changes the scenario and forces the CPC into an unexpected violent move.
3.293456
Relative Brier Score
54
Forecasts
1
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Aug 27, 2024 to Feb 27, 2025
95%
No
Aug 27, 2024 to Feb 27, 2025
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Probability
Answer
65%
(-15%)
Yes
35%
(+15%)
No
Given existent precedent episodes and high tensions in the region, with Israel aiming to jeopardize perceived enemies, it is likely such an attack will take place.
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Given the Russians are currently focusing the majority of their efforts and resources on the Donbass region, and on grinding the Ukranians in the Kursk region, a major ground offensive to attack Kharkiv, Kyiv and/or Odesa is very unlikely.