RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 08:33PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	6%	7%	-1%	+0%
Armenia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Georgia	4%	4%	+0%	+0%
Kazakhstan	1%	2%	-1%	+0%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 08:42PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	13%	Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025	Jan 28, 2025	4%	+9%	-2%
No	87%	Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025	Jan 28, 2025	96%	-9%	+2%

Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(9 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 02:42AM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	25%	27%	-2%	-37%
No	75%	73%	+2%	+37%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 12:14PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	35%	-5%	-3%
No	70%	65%	+5%	+3%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 12:15PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	13%	Oct 29, 2024 to Oct 29, 2025	Jan 29, 2025	12%	+1%	+4%
No	87%	Oct 29, 2024 to Oct 29, 2025	Jan 29, 2025	88%	-1%	-4%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 12:19PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025	Nov 29, 2024	0%	+1%	+0%
No	99%	Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025	Nov 29, 2024	100%	-1%	+0%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 12:20PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	5%	-5%	+0%
No	100%	95%	+5%	+0%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 12:21PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	5%	+1%	+0%
No	94%	95%	-1%	+0%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 12:22PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana	6%	3%	+3%	+0%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells	3%	5%	-2%	+0%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo	2%	1%	+1%	+0%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo	2%	1%	+1%	+0%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 12:23PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025	Nov 29, 2024	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025	Nov 29, 2024	99%	+1%	+0%

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