RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 04, 2024 01:06PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	32%	23%	+9%	-2%
No	68%	77%	-9%	+2%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 04, 2024 01:06PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Oman	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Qatar	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Saudi Arabia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Tunisia	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 04, 2024 01:06PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
23 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 20, 2024 07:45PM UTC
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	18%	11%	+7%	-4%
No	82%	89%	-7%	+4%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 08:33PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	6%	8%	-2%	+1%
Armenia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Georgia	4%	4%	+0%	+0%
Kazakhstan	1%	2%	-1%	+0%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 08:42PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	13%	Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025	Jan 28, 2025	5%	+8%	-1%
No	87%	Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025	Jan 28, 2025	95%	-8%	+1%

Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 02:42AM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	25%	32%	-7%	-32%
No	75%	68%	+7%	+32%

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 03:07AM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	15%	-5%	+0%
No	90%	85%	+5%	+0%

Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 05:52AM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	75%	25%	+50%	-18%
No	25%	75%	-50%	+18%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 12:14PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	39%	-9%	+2%
No	70%	61%	+9%	-2%

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