Hinterhunter

Lowering further after reading commentaries by @o-maverick and @Plataea479 

Even if testing is necessary, many are assuming it will be detactable as in the past. Although improbable because unheard of, it may occur outside of NK, as cooperation with Russia or Iran would be an option. Coordination with Russia was evident in the recent missile test which happened at the same time as a russian nuclear exercise. If detectable, will it be reported as such? Some recent strange earthquakes in Iran have been the cause of some suspicion...

lowering based on US election and December lowering odds this period

Raising as I have been much lower than a steady crowd forecast, but unclear as to the motivation - displaying the technical prowess without being able to largely profit from it is inefficient and costly. Big  and medium US labs have the incentive to be in the top 5 spots as they have a costumer base, infrastructure and a lead on marketing.They also may have unreleased models that they may deploy to keep their lead.

That said, Yi-lightning is impressive: small, effective, economic to train and use, and with perhaps sufficient innovations (a competitive MoE, for one )to have more room to improve than legacy architectures (LLama).

Lowering because the very recent missile test came with a missive from 김정은

North Korea leader says longest ICBM test 'appropriate military action' against enemies

which Reuters kind of translates as "be warned, but don't fret about a nuclear test before elections" (I'm reading very liberally here).

What he actually said was:

"The test-fire is an appropriate military action that fully meets the purpose of informing the rivals, who have intentionally escalated the regional situation and posed a threat to the security of our Republic recently, of our counteraction will, and it also constitutes an indispensable process in the course of constantly developing our state's strategic attack forces. As recently witnessed by us, the rivals' dangerous tightening of their nuclear alliance and various adventuristic military maneuvers go to further highlight the importance of strengthening our nuclear forces. We should never allow any threat to approach the security sphere under our state's influence. The security situation of our state and ever-aggravating prospective threats and challenges require us to continue to bolster up our modern strategic attack forces and more perfectly round off our nuclear forces' response posture. I affirm that the DPRK will never change its line of bolstering up its nuclear forces."

https://kcnawatch.org/newstream/1730347729-146609001/icbm-test-fire-conducted-in-dprk/

"bolster" does quite a lot of work in this state approved translation.  More accurately:

《이번 발사는 최근 들어 의도적으로 지역정세를 격화시키고 공화국의 안전을 위협해온 적수들에게 우리의 대응의지를 알리는데 철저히 부합되는 적절한 군사활동이며 또한 우리 국가의 전략공격무력을 부단히 고도화해나가는 로정에서 필수적공정으로 된다. 우리가 최근에 목격하고있는 적수들의 위험한 핵동맹강화책동과 각양각태의 모험주의적인 군사활동들은 우리의 핵무력강화의 중요성을 더욱 부각시켜주고있다. 우리는 그 어떤 위협이 국가의 안전영향권에 접근하는것을 절대로 허용하지 말아야 한다. 우리 국가의 안전상황과 가증되는 전망적인 위협과 도전들은 우리로 하여금 현대적인 전략공격무력을 계속 강화해나가며 핵대응태세를 더욱 완벽하게 갖출것을 요구하고있다. 조선민주주의인민공화국은 핵무력강화로선을 절대로 바꾸지 않을것임을 확언한다.》(끝)
http://kcna.kp/kp/article/q/b3d35ab730b11b9daba5949a3c27e051.kcmsf

nvdia and apple results