Hinterhunter

lowering slightly because the election calendar is not as active in this period, and the low hanging fruits for coups have been taken and seem to be hardening to further coups.

following crowd

Time to highlight news with some pesky details that often value and financial analysts overlook:

1. China Urges Local Companies to Stay Away From Nvidia’s Chips

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-27/china-urges-local-companies-to-stay-away-from-nvidia-s-ai-chips?

China is third largest market for NVIDIA. The speed at which this is implemented will affect the speed at which the stock will fall (spoiler:fast)

2.Tech war: US-sanctioned Chinese AI chip rival to Nvidia, Biren Technology, plans IPO

https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-war/article/3278210/tech-war-us-sanctioned-chinese-ai-chip-rival-nvidia-biren-technology-plans-ipo

Perhaps connected with above, as national champions, hype and ipo's seem more entangled than ever (see OpenAI and the White House for another example)

3.Nvidia throws an AI-RAN curveball

https://www.telecomtv.com/content/telcos-and-ai-channel/nvidia-throws-an-ai-ran-curveball-51323/

Interesting details on how in its efforts to find new markets, NVIDIA may be stepping in too many toes, expecting easy sailing in a very competitive and regulated telco market, projecting pilot success in Japan to rougher places, possibly betraying OpenRAN initiative, and confronting Huawei head-on ( another reason for 1?)

You don't become the world's most valuable company without taking value from competitors, and Huawei is the prime candidate here, and will fight back: aside from their own AI chip, they are ready for the geopolitical contest too.

This may happen in a renewed JCPOA, but it will be one of the later steps and there will be indications of other actions well beforehand that we are not seeing now

adjusting downward passage of time

Going to zero for lack of ceasefire