Any other country seems to be resolved, this article provides seemingly solid evidence :
1.549633
Relative Brier Score
340
Forecasts
54
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 6 | 44 | 333 | 302 | 1295 |
| Comments | 1 | 4 | 35 | 33 | 613 |
| Questions Forecasted | 5 | 31 | 63 | 51 | 190 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 2 | 10 | 54 | 53 | 263 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
17%
(0%)
Togo
99%
(+34%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Files
https://amp.epe.es/es/internacional/20240922/soldados-rusos-wagner-guinea-ecuatorial-obiang-108292512
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
17%
(0%)
Togo
65%
(+15%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Upping on Equatorial Guinea although confirmation will be slow
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-3%)
Yes
97%
(+3%)
No
I was wrong and little time left. Counterparty hardly exists now
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Little time remaining, no real opposition, wars need leadership continuity
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-3%)
Kharkiv
0%
(0%)
Kyiv
0%
(0%)
Odesa
passage of time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
25%
(+17%)
Yes
Nov 15, 2024 to Nov 15, 2025
75%
(-17%)
No
Nov 15, 2024 to Nov 15, 2025
upping on a spate of recent models from a large number of chinese companies, big and small, in rapid succession in the past few months.
The c-eval leaderboard is telling, when 12 months ago gpt-4 was in the top 3, now it is number 27:
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
17%
(0%)
Togo
50%
(+21%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Equatorial Guinea https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c30pjv8vp80o
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(-15%)
Yes
50%
(+15%)
No
Further research on the difficulties of creating a wholly chinese ecosystem for all the parts as @Rene points out seems to indicate the time frame is too short, but the effort will be made. Reducing.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
85%
No
Initial forecast from considering Trump administration support, Hezbollah reduction of activity in Syria, diminished russian capabilities going forward, strenght of Kurdish forces, and recent attacks on the region.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(+3%)
Yes
70%
(-3%)
No
readjusting further in the face of current evidence
Files