Forecasted Questions
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 13, 2024 02:01AM UTC
(24 days ago)
Oct 13, 2024 02:01AM UTC
(24 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 5% | -5% | -1% |
| No | 100% | 95% | +5% | +1% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 13, 2024 02:01AM UTC
(24 days ago)
Oct 13, 2024 02:01AM UTC
(24 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Oman | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Qatar | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Tunisia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 13, 2024 02:01AM UTC
(24 days ago)
Oct 13, 2024 02:01AM UTC
(24 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
As of Oct 26, 2024 11:49PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 13, 2024 02:01AM UTC
(24 days ago)
Oct 13, 2024 02:01AM UTC
(24 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Oct 13, 2024 to Apr 13, 2025 | Nov 13, 2024 | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | Oct 13, 2024 to Apr 13, 2025 | Nov 13, 2024 | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
21 Forecasts
21 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 13, 2024 02:01AM UTC
(24 days ago)
Oct 13, 2024 02:01AM UTC
(24 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharkiv | 0% | 4% | -4% | +0% |
| Kyiv | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Odesa | 0% | 3% | -3% | +0% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts
15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 18, 2024 04:34PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Oct 18, 2024 04:34PM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | 97% | +3% | +0% |
| No | 0% | 3% | -3% | +0% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
48 Forecasts
48 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 18, 2024 10:16PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Oct 18, 2024 10:16PM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 11% | -11% | -4% |
| No | 100% | 89% | +11% | +4% |
Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?
Forecast Count:
22 Forecasts
22 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2024 02:47PM UTC
(13 days ago)
Oct 23, 2024 02:47PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 24% | 37% | -13% | +0% |
| No | 76% | 63% | +13% | +0% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
As of Oct 31, 2024 09:45PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 11:55PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Oct 26, 2024 11:55PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | Oct 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2025 | Jan 26, 2025 | 8% | +6% | -1% |
| No | 86% | Oct 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2025 | Jan 26, 2025 | 92% | -6% | +1% |
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 11:56PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Oct 26, 2024 11:56PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12% | 15% | -3% | -1% |
| No | 88% | 85% | +3% | +1% |