Forecasted Questions
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 11:56PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Oct 26, 2024 11:56PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12% | 10% | +2% | -7% |
| No | 88% | 90% | -2% | +7% |
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
As of Oct 31, 2024 09:50PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts
15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 11:58PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Oct 26, 2024 11:58PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 17% | Oct 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025 | Jan 26, 2025 | 4% | +13% | -3% |
| No | 83% | Oct 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025 | Jan 26, 2025 | 96% | -13% | +3% |
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
Forecast Count:
25 Forecasts
25 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 11:59PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Oct 26, 2024 11:59PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 21% | Oct 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025 | Nov 26, 2024 | 7% | +14% | -5% |
| No | 79% | Oct 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025 | Nov 26, 2024 | 93% | -14% | +5% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 03, 2024 07:28PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Nov 03, 2024 07:28PM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 51% | 33% | +18% | +7% |
| No | 49% | 67% | -18% | -7% |
What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 09, 2024 04:40PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Nov 09, 2024 04:40PM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 24% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 24% but less than 26% | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 26% but less than 28% | 0% | 5% | -5% | -1% |
| More than or equal to 28% | 100% | 94% | +6% | +1% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 09, 2024 04:40PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Nov 09, 2024 04:40PM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 15, 2024 03:32PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 15, 2024 03:32PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 15, 2024 03:32PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 15, 2024 03:32PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 5% | -5% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 95% | +5% | +0% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 15, 2024 03:32PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 15, 2024 03:32PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Oman | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Qatar | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 0% | 2% | -2% | 0% |
| Tunisia | 0% | 1% | -1% | 0% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 15, 2024 03:32PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 15, 2024 03:32PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 98% | +2% | +0% |