RAND Forecasting Initiative

As of Oct 31, 2024 09:50PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 11:58PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	17%	Oct 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025	Jan 26, 2025	5%	+12%	-2%
No	83%	Oct 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025	Jan 26, 2025	95%	-12%	+2%

Forecast Count:
25 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 11:59PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	21%	Oct 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025	Nov 26, 2024	6%	+15%	-6%
No	79%	Oct 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025	Nov 26, 2024	94%	-15%	+6%

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 03, 2024 07:28PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	51%	27%	+24%	+2%
No	49%	73%	-24%	-2%

Io-Aurelius