56th
Accuracy Rank

Io-Aurelius

About:
Show more

-0.037623

Relative Brier Score

0

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 1 36 399 399 399
Comments 0 0 78 78 78
Questions Forecasted 1 21 45 45 45
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 32 32 32
 Definitions
New Badge
Io-Aurelius
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Io-Aurelius
made their 12th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
51% (+1%)
Yes
49% (-1%)
No
Show more
New Badge
Io-Aurelius
earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Oct 2024

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
Io-Aurelius
made their 25th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
21% (-4%)
Yes
Oct 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025
79% (+4%)
No
Oct 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025
hypothesizing strikes will cause more anti-israel protests than anti-iran ones
Files
New Prediction
Io-Aurelius
made their 15th forecast (view all):
Io-Aurelius quit this question on Oct 31, 2024 09:50PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
17% (-21%)
Yes
Oct 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025
83% (+21%)
No
Oct 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025

unlikely to be ceasefire

Files
New Prediction

time

Files
New Prediction
Io-Aurelius
made their 11th forecast (view all):
Io-Aurelius quit this question on Oct 31, 2024 09:45PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
14% (-7%)
Yes
Oct 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2025
86% (+7%)
No
Oct 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2025

down

Files
New Prediction
Io-Aurelius
made their 14th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
100% (+15%)
Yes
Oct 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025
0% (-15%)
No
Oct 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025

yikes

Files
New Prediction
Io-Aurelius
made their 11th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
50% (+9%)
Yes
50% (-9%)
No

oh man

Files
New Prediction
Io-Aurelius
made their 10th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
41% (+6%)
Yes
59% (-6%)
No

ffif

Files
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username