going up w/ pager escalation
-0.037623
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 14 | 363 | 363 | 363 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 78 | 78 | 78 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 8 | 44 | 44 | 44 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 32 | 32 | 32 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
(+25%)
Yes
Sep 18, 2024 to Sep 18, 2025
50%
(-25%)
No
Sep 18, 2024 to Sep 18, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-11%)
Yes
100%
(+11%)
No
Extremizing early.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(-12%)
Yes
Sep 18, 2024 to Mar 18, 2025
98%
(+12%)
No
Sep 18, 2024 to Mar 18, 2025
as time passes, my estimate of the probability of this happening within a year decreases. Extremizing early.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
19%
(-18%)
Yes
Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025
81%
(+18%)
No
Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025
reducing to crowd
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
25%
(-25%)
Yes
Sep 13, 2024 to Sep 13, 2025
75%
(+25%)
No
Sep 13, 2024 to Sep 13, 2025
sticking to crowd for now; haven't looked into this recently.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
14%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025
86%
(0%)
No
Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025
sticking to conservative base rate
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
11%
(-2%)
Yes
89%
(+2%)
No
tm
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
28%
(-2%)
Yes
72%
(+2%)
No
tm
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+4%)
Yes
0%
(-4%)
No
extremizing early.
Files
going up with pager escalation