Confirmed previous forecast
-0.107022
Relative Brier Score
406
Forecasts
32
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 16 | 406 | 406 | 406 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 78 | 78 | 78 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 14 | 45 | 45 | 45 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 32 | 32 | 32 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kharkiv
0%
(0%)
Kyiv
0%
(0%)
Odesa
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
0%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 24%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
100%
(0%)
More than or equal to 28%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
51%
(+1%)
Yes
49%
(-1%)
No
this is kind of a crazy question. feels super uncertain. happy to stay ~50/50 for now.
Files
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Oct 2024
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.