hypothesizing strikes will cause more anti-israel protests than anti-iran ones
-0.107022
Relative Brier Score
399
Forecasts
32
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 36 | 399 | 399 | 399 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 78 | 78 | 78 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 21 | 45 | 45 | 45 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 32 | 32 | 32 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Oct 2024
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
21%
(-4%)
Yes
Oct 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025
79%
(+4%)
No
Oct 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Io-Aurelius
quit this question on Oct 31, 2024 09:50PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
17%
(-21%)
Yes
Oct 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025
83%
(+21%)
No
Oct 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025
unlikely to be ceasefire
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
(-1%)
Yes
88%
(+1%)
No
time
Files
New Prediction
Io-Aurelius
quit this question on Oct 31, 2024 09:45PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
14%
(-7%)
Yes
Oct 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2025
86%
(+7%)
No
Oct 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2025
down
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
100%
(+15%)
Yes
Oct 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025
0%
(-15%)
No
Oct 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025
yikes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(+9%)
Yes
50%
(-9%)
No
oh man
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
41%
(+6%)
Yes
59%
(-6%)
No
ffif
Files
this is kind of a crazy question. feels super uncertain. happy to stay ~50/50 for now.