0.379792
Relative Brier Score
1
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Why do you think you're right?
To further facilitate a 'soft' revolution in Iran, critical infrastructure could and would be degraded by a cyberattack, formenting further unrest amongst the populace, leading to open defiance of the state and demands for a change in leadership. In response to Iran's support of various groups throughout the Middle East, this would be a simple way to tie up the IRGC and leadership and distract them from their extra-territorial activities.
Why might you be wrong?
Assistance from Russia and North Korea, could result in the penetrations being detected and traced back to the instigators. China can be ruled out as a potential assistance partner as the Houthi attacks on shipping have the potential to impact the Chinese economy as much as the European economy.