137th
Accuracy Rank

JJMLP

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1.777773

Relative Brier Score

695

Forecasts

11

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Forecasting Activity
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Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 23 41 461 372 2310
Comments 0 0 6 5 80
Questions Forecasted 23 40 93 69 297
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 28 22 150
 Definitions
New Prediction

DUV has already been used in China to produce small chips. The issue is low throughput and high failure rate but I think Chinese companies should be able to improve but maybe not before Jan 2026.

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https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/10/24/news-asml-ceo-china-might-be-able-to-produce-5nm-and-3nm-chips-amid-u-s-export-restrictions/


"Notably, Fouquet claims that China may be able to produce some chips at 5nm and 3nm nodes, albeit in limited capacity and using older DUV lithography technology, according to the report from Wccftech.

Whether China has the capability to produce chips at advanced nodes has recently come under scrutiny. Fouquet’s assertion follows reports that Xiaomi has purportedly completed the tape-out of its first 3nm SoC, which might be launched next year, according to the report from Wccftech. This reported innovation in China could assist Huawei’s HiSilicon and other sanctioned Chinese firms in improving their chip design

On the other hand, according to the report from Reuters, Fouquet believes that the U.S. export restrictions will persist regardless of who wins the presidential election.

According to the report from Reuters, Fouquet mentioned that the Netherlands and Europe are debating whether further export restrictions are for national security concerns or trade policy, and whether they would even be effective. He mentioned that even American companies are also thinking about whether these regulatory measures bring benefits or harm."

EUV is an advanced technology and I think China will continue to use their existing technology (DUV). 

Starting low


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JJMLP
made their 6th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
95% (0%)
Yes
5% (0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
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JJMLP
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4% (0%)
Yes
Nov 2, 2024 to Nov 2, 2025
96% (0%)
No
Nov 2, 2024 to Nov 2, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
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Updating passage of time

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JJMLP
made their 12th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
JJMLP
made their 12th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
2% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
98% (0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
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JJMLP
made their 14th forecast (view all):
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Answer
1% (0%)
Kuwait
2% (0%)
Oman
1% (0%)
Qatar
3% (0%)
Saudi Arabia
1% (0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
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JJMLP
made their 9th forecast (view all):
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Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025
100% (0%)
No
Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
JJMLP
made their 10th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6% (0%)
Yes
Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025
94% (0%)
No
Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
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