https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/10/24/news-asml-ceo-china-might-be-able-to-produce-5nm-and-3nm-chips-amid-u-s-export-restrictions/
"Notably, Fouquet claims that China may be able to produce some chips at 5nm and 3nm nodes, albeit in limited capacity and using older DUV lithography technology, according to the report from Wccftech.
Whether China has the capability to produce chips at advanced nodes has recently come under scrutiny. Fouquet’s assertion follows reports that Xiaomi has purportedly completed the tape-out of its first 3nm SoC, which might be launched next year, according to the report from Wccftech. This reported innovation in China could assist Huawei’s HiSilicon and other sanctioned Chinese firms in improving their chip design
On the other hand, according to the report from Reuters, Fouquet believes that the U.S. export restrictions will persist regardless of who wins the presidential election.
According to the report from Reuters, Fouquet mentioned that the Netherlands and Europe are debating whether further export restrictions are for national security concerns or trade policy, and whether they would even be effective. He mentioned that even American companies are also thinking about whether these regulatory measures bring benefits or harm."
EUV is an advanced technology and I think China will continue to use their existing technology (DUV).
Starting low
DUV has already been used in China to produce small chips. The issue is low throughput and high failure rate but I think Chinese companies should be able to improve but maybe not before Jan 2026.