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107th
Accuracy Rank

JJMLP

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2024 Season Stats

0.164431

Relative Brier Score

331

Forecasts

22

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 26 42 476 331 2269
Comments 0 0 6 5 80
Questions Forecasted 26 36 93 64 292
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 1 29 22 150
 Definitions
New Prediction
What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?
JJMLP made their 4th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than 24%
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
22% (-35%)
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
78% (+35%)
More than or equal to 28%

Increasing last bin

Files
New Prediction
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
JJMLP made their 5th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
95% (0%)
Yes
5% (0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
JJMLP made their 6th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4% (0%)
Yes
Sep 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2025
96% (0%)
No
Sep 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
JJMLP made their 11th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
JJMLP made their 11th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
2% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
98% (0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
JJMLP made their 13th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Kuwait
2% (0%)
Oman
1% (0%)
Qatar
3% (0%)
Saudi Arabia
1% (0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
JJMLP made their 8th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025
100% (0%)
No
Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
JJMLP made their 9th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6% (0%)
Yes
Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025
94% (0%)
No
Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
JJMLP made their 9th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025
99% (0%)
No
Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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