105th
Accuracy Rank

Jeroen

Jeroen
About:
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0.129545

Relative Brier Score

26

Forecasts

2

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 3 33 361 281 1108
Comments 0 0 2 2 149
Questions Forecasted 3 33 66 49 160
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 16 12 71
 Definitions
New Prediction
Jeroen
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
4%
Less than or equal to 9%
15%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
62%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
15%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
4%
More than or equal to 40%

Putting most weight in it staying between 20-29%. I expect it to decrease a bit (perhaps due to an increase of Russian misinformation, or because of how a peace deal may get negotiated).

Files
New Prediction
Jeroen
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
3%
Less than or equal to 49
13%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
40%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
31%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
13%
More than or equal to 80

I assume the downward trend after the invasion into Ukraine will continue, but depending on how the war evolves (and whether or not Russia will target other countries) the perceived threat may stabilize or go up.

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New Prediction
Jeroen
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
5%
Less than or equal to 59
8%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
18%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
32%
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
37%
More than or equal to 90

Going above the base rate because it will be an election year.

Files
New Prediction

Trump's win likely changes the picture, but I'm unsure in which direction.

Files
New Badge
Jeroen
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Jeroen
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
28% (-17%)
Yes
Nov 5, 2024 to Nov 5, 2025
72% (+17%)
No
Nov 5, 2024 to Nov 5, 2025

Moving closer to crowd. I thought we were close to a war because of the escalations from a month ago, but based on other forecasters' analyses it seems a war is still a few escalations away.

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New Badge
Jeroen
earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Oct 2024

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
Jeroen
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
30% (-10%)
Yes
70% (+10%)
No

Pretty sure I updated in the wrong direction last time, and not on purpose! Again, passage of time and no news.

Files
New Prediction
Jeroen
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
4% (-1%)
Moldova
1% (0%)
Armenia
2% (-1%)
Georgia
1% (0%)
Kazakhstan

Moldova is moving closer to Europe, Georgia is moving closer to Russia...

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New Prediction

Passage of time (should've already done that with my forecast from a month ago).

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