Jeroen

Pretty sure I updated in the wrong direction last time, and not on purpose! Again, passage of time and no news.

Moldova is moving closer to Europe, Georgia is moving closer to Russia...

Passage of time (should've already done that with my forecast from a month ago).

There isn't any news, so I'm increasing my confidence that the crowd is correct.

Very unlikely at this point, only one month left.

Passage of time.

While all of the countries mentioned face certain economic challenges, Ethiopia appears to be the most vulnerable to default in the near future. Its recent default and ongoing restructuring efforts indicate significant financial distress. The other countries have stronger economic fundamentals and have not defaulted on their debts in recent decades. Especially Nigeria is looking strong. 

Very uncertain, I'm just making rough guesses.

Although Argentina has a history of debt defaults, President Milei's commitment to fiscal discipline and the IMF support could reduce the risk in the near term. Bolivia's economic challenges, including depleting foreign reserves and political instability, increase its vulnerability to default. Ecuador's recent IMF agreement and successful debt restructuring might help it avoid default in the short term, but political uncertainty and economic risks remain.

Egypt's economic situation is fragile, with high inflation and debt levels, but the question's resolution criteria require a very specific set of circumstances for a "yes" outcome. The 50% inflation threshold seems unlikely within 12 months, given the downward trend and central bank measures. Similarly, a default on external debt appears improbable due to international support and improving reserves. The stock market crash scenario is more likely, but mitigated by global monetary easing and Egypt's reforms. Even in past instability, the EGX 30 hasn't experienced a 30% one-month decline. This in combination with recent positive developments suggests that a full-blown collapse in 12 months is quite unlikely.