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Jeroen

Jeroen
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Forecasted Questions
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Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
 19 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 07:18PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
S-400 or S-500 missile system 2% 9%
Su-35 fighter jets 4% 6%

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 07:20PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 50% Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 57%
No 50% Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 43%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 07:20PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 38% 35%
No 62% 65%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 07:20PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 4% Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025 Jan 31, 2025 12%
No 96% Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025 Jan 31, 2025 88%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 07:20PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 07:20PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 0% 1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 100% 99%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 07:20PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 1%
No 100% 99%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 07:21PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 1% 2%
Latvia 1% 1%
Lithuania 1% 2%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 07:21PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 1%
No 99% Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 99%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 07:21PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 1%
No 100% Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 99%
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