RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 07:31PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	2%	9%	-7%	-2%
Su-35 fighter jets	4%	7%	-3%	+0%

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 07:33PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	40%	44%	-4%	+1%
No	60%	56%	+4%	-1%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 07:33PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	7%	Sep 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2025	Dec 29, 2024	8%	-1%	+1%
No	93%	Sep 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2025	Dec 29, 2024	92%	+1%	-1%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 07:38PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	22%	-12%	-2%
No	90%	78%	+12%	+2%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 07:43PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	48%	39%	+9%	+1%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	47%	56%	-9%	+1%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	5%	5%	+0%	-1%

Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 07:46PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	24%	Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025	Oct 29, 2024	16%	+8%	+2%
No	76%	Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025	Oct 29, 2024	84%	-8%	-2%

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 08:00PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	50%	Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025	Oct 29, 2024	54%	-4%	+5%
No	50%	Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025	Oct 29, 2024	46%	+4%	-5%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 08:11PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	38%	41%	-3%	+1%
No	62%	59%	+3%	-1%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 08:12PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	Sep 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2025	Dec 29, 2024	5%	-1%	+0%
No	96%	Sep 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2025	Dec 29, 2024	95%	+1%	+0%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 08:12PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Jeroen

Jeroen

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