Confirmed previous forecast
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Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
72
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 21 | 297 | 72 | 1219 |
| Comments | 0 | 7 | 41 | 36 | 190 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 21 | 51 | 30 | 169 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 73 |
| Definitions | |||||
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New Badge
Star Commenter - Mar 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
11%
(0%)
Togo
21%
(0%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 49
10%
(0%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
43%
(0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
41%
(0%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
5%
(0%)
More than or equal to 80
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
87%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
3%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
At this point, with such little news, I feel comfortable assigning less than 0.5% odds to it happening.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
/
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Angola
5%
(0%)
Kenya
28%
(0%)
Ethiopia
2%
(0%)
Nigeria
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming
Files
Why might you be wrong?
x
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 9%
10%
(-4%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
75%
(+3%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
13%
(+1%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 40%
Why do you think you're right?
I'm slightly increasing my confidence in the 20-29% bin, moving closer to the crowd forecast. Germany's increased military investment and recognition that Europe needs stronger defense given uncertain US support under Trump suggests stability rather than dramatic shifts in either direction.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Russian escalation might boost Ukrainian support beyond 30%. Economic pressures or effective Russian disinformation could also drive perception downward.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Question is closing in less than 24 hours.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
x
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
(+3%)
Yes
Mar 31, 2025 to Mar 31, 2026
85%
(-3%)
No
Mar 31, 2025 to Mar 31, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Khamenei is 85 years old with health issues, giving him roughly 13% chance of dying in the next year. I'm adding a slight increase due to Trump's recent threats against Iran and the weakening of Iran's position after the fall of Assad in Syria.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The Iranian regime has survived many crises before. The security forces remain loyal to Khamenei, and even with regional setbacks, there's no strong evidence of imminent collapse.
Files