Moving closer to crowd
0.719211
Relative Brier Score
1072
Forecasts
71
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 32 | 53 | 384 | 245 | 1072 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 31 |
| Questions Forecasted | 29 | 29 | 62 | 42 | 153 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 20 | 12 | 71 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Iran Nuclear Program,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Iran-VNSAs,
Microelectronics,
Manufacturing
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-5%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
3%
(-4%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Kharkiv
0%
(0%)
Kyiv
0%
(0%)
Odesa
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Togo
30%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
While there's some unrest in the region, Russia already has a strong presence in Togo and may not need to send in additional forces.
There's a slightly bigger chance of them deploying to another African country. There's a lot of instability across the continent, and Russia has been actively expanding its influence. It's possible they'll see an opportunity to step in and offer their services to a new country.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
89%
(-6%)
Yes
Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025
11%
(+6%)
No
Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025
Going down slightly as I wonder if there's a reason why they haven't already, and also to be lower than my 12 month forecast.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
95%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025
5%
(0%)
No
Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Passage of time and no news