I assume the downward trend after the invasion into Ukraine will continue, but depending on how the war evolves (and whether or not Russia will target other countries) the perceived threat may stabilize or go up.
0.621896
Relative Brier Score
267
Forecasts
20
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 3 | 33 | 361 | 281 | 1108 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 149 |
| Questions Forecasted | 3 | 33 | 66 | 49 | 160 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 16 | 12 | 71 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Less than or equal to 49
13%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
40%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
31%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
13%
More than or equal to 80
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Less than or equal to 59
8%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
18%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
32%
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
37%
More than or equal to 90
Going above the base rate because it will be an election year.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(0%)
Yes
60%
(0%)
No
Trump's win likely changes the picture, but I'm unsure in which direction.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
28%
(-17%)
Yes
Nov 5, 2024 to Nov 5, 2025
72%
(+17%)
No
Nov 5, 2024 to Nov 5, 2025
Moving closer to crowd. I thought we were close to a war because of the escalations from a month ago, but based on other forecasters' analyses it seems a war is still a few escalations away.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(-10%)
Yes
70%
(+10%)
No
Pretty sure I updated in the wrong direction last time, and not on purpose! Again, passage of time and no news.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-1%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
2%
(-1%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Moldova is moving closer to Europe, Georgia is moving closer to Russia...
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-6%)
Yes
96%
(+6%)
No
Passage of time (should've already done that with my forecast from a month ago).
Files
Putting most weight in it staying between 20-29%. I expect it to decrease a bit (perhaps due to an increase of Russian misinformation, or because of how a peace deal may get negotiated).