Following the crowd as they may have entered Equatorial Guinea
0.118658
Relative Brier Score
283
Forecasts
12
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 2 | 35 | 341 | 283 | 1110 |
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Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 16 | 12 | 71 |
Definitions |
Putting most weight in it staying between 20-29%. I expect it to decrease a bit (perhaps due to an increase of Russian misinformation, or because of how a peace deal may get negotiated).
I assume the downward trend after the invasion into Ukraine will continue, but depending on how the war evolves (and whether or not Russia will target other countries) the perceived threat may stabilize or go up.
Going above the base rate because it will be an election year.
Trump's win likely changes the picture, but I'm unsure in which direction.
Active Forecaster
Moving closer to crowd. I thought we were close to a war because of the escalations from a month ago, but based on other forecasters' analyses it seems a war is still a few escalations away.
Pretty sure I updated in the wrong direction last time, and not on purpose! Again, passage of time and no news.
Question closing soon.