Pretty sure I updated in the wrong direction last time, and not on purpose! Again, passage of time and no news.
0.118658
Relative Brier Score
277
Forecasts
12
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 29 | 31 | 375 | 277 | 1104 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 31 |
| Questions Forecasted | 29 | 30 | 64 | 46 | 157 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 17 | 12 | 71 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(-10%)
Yes
70%
(+10%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-1%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
2%
(-1%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Moldova is moving closer to Europe, Georgia is moving closer to Russia...
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-6%)
Yes
96%
(+6%)
No
Passage of time (should've already done that with my forecast from a month ago).
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
(-13%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
60%
(+13%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
5%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
There isn't any news, so I'm increasing my confidence that the crowd is correct.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-9%)
Yes
99%
(+9%)
No
Very unlikely at this point, only one month left.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
(-5%)
Yes
65%
(+5%)
No
Passage of time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Angola
10%
Kenya
40%
Ethiopia
3%
Nigeria
While all of the countries mentioned face certain economic challenges, Ethiopia appears to be the most vulnerable to default in the near future. Its recent default and ongoing restructuring efforts indicate significant financial distress. The other countries have stronger economic fundamentals and have not defaulted on their debts in recent decades. Especially Nigeria is looking strong.
Files
Moving closer to crowd. I thought we were close to a war because of the escalations from a month ago, but based on other forecasters' analyses it seems a war is still a few escalations away.