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Jim

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Forecasted Questions
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Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

You quit this question on Nov 7, 2024 02:22PM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 17, 2024 09:01PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 33% 8%
No 67% 92%

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 02:15AM UTC
(26 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 10% 36%
No 90% 64%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 02:59AM UTC
(26 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana 5% 3%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells 10% 4%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo 0% 1%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo 0% 1%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 02:59AM UTC
(26 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 99% 97%
No 1% 3%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 03:05AM UTC
(26 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kharkiv 1% 3%
Kyiv 0% 1%
Odesa 0% 2%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 03:07AM UTC
(26 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 0%
No 99% Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 100%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 03:08AM UTC
(26 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 3% 5%
No 97% 95%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 18 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 03:08AM UTC
(26 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 0% 1%
Oman 0% 2%
Qatar 0% 1%
Saudi Arabia 0% 2%
Tunisia 0% 1%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
 17 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 03:08AM UTC
(26 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 03:08AM UTC
(26 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Jan 30, 2025 0%
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