RAND Forecasting Initiative

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2024 04:46PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 24%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%	1%	0%	+1%	-2%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%	29%	22%	+7%	-29%
More than or equal to 28%	70%	77%	-7%	+30%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2024 05:41PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	11%	-1%	-6%
No	90%	89%	+1%	+6%

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2024 06:42PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	44%	-34%	-10%
No	90%	56%	+34%	+10%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 02:41AM UTC
(30 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	100%	+0%	+0%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 01:38PM UTC
(29 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	37%	22%	+15%	-15%
No	63%	78%	-15%	+15%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2024 12:57AM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Sep 22, 2024 to Mar 22, 2025	Dec 22, 2024	3%	+2%	-1%
No	95%	Sep 22, 2024 to Mar 22, 2025	Dec 22, 2024	97%	-2%	+1%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2024 12:57AM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	3%	9%	-6%	-2%
Su-35 fighter jets	6%	7%	-1%	-1%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2024 01:02AM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2024 01:02AM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	9%	Sep 22, 2024 to Sep 22, 2025	Dec 22, 2024	5%	+4%	+1%
No	91%	Sep 22, 2024 to Sep 22, 2025	Dec 22, 2024	95%	-4%	-1%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2024 01:03AM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Jim

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