RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2024 01:04AM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2024 01:04AM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+2%	+0%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2024 01:04AM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Sep 22, 2024 to Mar 22, 2025	Oct 22, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	Sep 22, 2024 to Mar 22, 2025	Oct 22, 2024	100%	+0%	+0%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2024 01:04AM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Sep 22, 2024 to Mar 22, 2025	Oct 22, 2024	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Sep 22, 2024 to Mar 22, 2025	Oct 22, 2024	99%	+0%	+0%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2024 01:05AM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	Sep 22, 2024 to Mar 22, 2025	Oct 22, 2024	6%	+2%	-3%
No	92%	Sep 22, 2024 to Mar 22, 2025	Oct 22, 2024	94%	-2%	+3%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2024 01:05AM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Sep 22, 2024 to Mar 22, 2025	Oct 22, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	Sep 22, 2024 to Mar 22, 2025	Oct 22, 2024	100%	+0%	+0%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2024 01:06AM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	50%	Sep 22, 2024 to Mar 22, 2025	Oct 22, 2024	84%	-34%	+43%
No	50%	Sep 22, 2024 to Mar 22, 2025	Oct 22, 2024	16%	+34%	-43%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2024 01:06AM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	45%	Sep 22, 2024 to Sep 22, 2025	Oct 22, 2024	87%	-42%	+46%
No	55%	Sep 22, 2024 to Sep 22, 2025	Oct 22, 2024	13%	+42%	-46%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2024 01:06AM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	9%	Sep 22, 2024 to Sep 22, 2025	Dec 22, 2024	8%	+1%	+2%
No	91%	Sep 22, 2024 to Sep 22, 2025	Dec 22, 2024	92%	-1%	-2%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2024 01:07AM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana	5%	3%	+2%	+0%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells	10%	4%	+6%	+0%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Jim

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