RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 12:31PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	5%	-2%	-4%
No	97%	95%	+2%	+4%

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 07, 2024 02:23PM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 24%	0%	0%	+0%	0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%	3%	4%	-1%	-1%
More than or equal to 28%	97%	94%	+3%	+1%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 07, 2024 02:28PM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	50%	35%	+15%	+5%
No	50%	65%	-15%	-5%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 07, 2024 02:28PM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	0%	+0%	0%
No	100%	100%	+0%	0%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 07, 2024 02:29PM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	7%	-7%	-3%
No	100%	93%	+7%	+3%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 07, 2024 02:30PM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Nov 7, 2024 to May 7, 2025	Feb 7, 2025	5%	+0%	+0%
No	95%	Nov 7, 2024 to May 7, 2025	Feb 7, 2025	95%	+0%	+0%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 07, 2024 02:37PM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	2%	9%	-7%	+0%
Su-35 fighter jets	4%	6%	-2%	+0%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 07, 2024 02:37PM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 07, 2024 02:45PM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	11%	Nov 7, 2024 to Nov 7, 2025	Feb 7, 2025	13%	-2%	+5%
No	89%	Nov 7, 2024 to Nov 7, 2025	Feb 7, 2025	87%	+2%	-5%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 07, 2024 02:45PM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Jim

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