RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2024 12:20AM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2024 12:20AM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	2%	-2%	+1%
No	100%	98%	+2%	-1%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2024 12:20AM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Nov 10, 2024 to May 10, 2025	Dec 10, 2024	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	Nov 10, 2024 to May 10, 2025	Dec 10, 2024	99%	+1%	+0%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2024 12:20AM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	Nov 10, 2024 to May 10, 2025	Dec 10, 2024	7%	+1%	+1%
No	92%	Nov 10, 2024 to May 10, 2025	Dec 10, 2024	93%	-1%	-1%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2024 12:21AM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Nov 10, 2024 to May 10, 2025	Dec 10, 2024	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	Nov 10, 2024 to May 10, 2025	Dec 10, 2024	99%	+1%	+0%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2024 12:30AM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Nov 10, 2024 to Nov 10, 2025	Feb 10, 2025	22%	-17%	+1%
No	95%	Nov 10, 2024 to Nov 10, 2025	Feb 10, 2025	78%	+17%	-1%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2024 12:30AM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	Nov 10, 2024 to May 10, 2025	Dec 10, 2024	2%	+0%	+0%
No	98%	Nov 10, 2024 to May 10, 2025	Dec 10, 2024	98%	+0%	+0%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2024 02:08PM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2024 02:11PM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	2%	2%	+0%	-1%
Latvia	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Lithuania	1%	2%	-1%	+0%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2024 02:20PM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	6%	7%	-1%	+0%
Armenia	2%	2%	+0%	+0%
Georgia	6%	4%	+2%	+0%
Kazakhstan	0%	2%	-2%	+0%

Jim

About: