RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 17, 2024 09:01PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	33%	15%	+18%	-34%
No	67%	85%	-18%	+34%

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 17, 2024 09:05PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 24%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%	0%	2%	-2%	+1%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%	3%	6%	-3%	-5%
More than or equal to 28%	97%	92%	+5%	+3%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 17, 2024 09:07PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	27%	-17%	+13%
No	90%	73%	+17%	-13%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 17, 2024 09:07PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	100%	+0%	+0%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 17, 2024 09:08PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	25%	11%	+14%	-4%
No	75%	89%	-14%	+4%

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 02:15AM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	37%	-27%	-2%
No	90%	63%	+27%	+2%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 02:15AM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Jan 30, 2025	5%	+0%	-1%
No	95%	Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Jan 30, 2025	95%	+0%	+1%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 02:15AM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	3%	9%	-6%	+0%
Su-35 fighter jets	6%	7%	-1%	+0%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 02:16AM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 02:16AM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	9%	Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025	Jan 30, 2025	8%	+1%	-1%
No	91%	Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025	Jan 30, 2025	92%	-1%	+1%

Jim

About: