JonathanMann

Jonathan Mann
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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM By 31 December 2022, will the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company announce plans to build a semiconductor fab in Europe? -0.000078
    Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? -0.000771
    Jan 1, 2023 05:00AM Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022? -0.001293
    Dec 29, 2022 10:00PM What will be the outcome of the Israeli legislative election on 1 November 2022? -0.026485
    Dec 29, 2022 05:00AM In the next six months, will U.S. and China announce the establishment of an ongoing bilateral dialog mechanism that includes discussions of emerging technologies? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 31, 2022 and Jun 29, 2022) -0.000024
    Dec 6, 2022 08:00PM Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2022 and Dec 6, 2022) -0.000277
    Nov 28, 2022 03:46PM Will Jair Bolsonaro formally contest the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election by 31 December 2022? 0.0
    Nov 14, 2022 02:43PM Will Google score more wins than any other submitter in the next round of the MLPerf training benchmarking suite? -0.037653
    Nov 9, 2022 02:00PM How many total unique AI systems will Baidu and Alibaba submit for the next round of the MLPerf benchmarking suite? 0.001877
    Nov 6, 2022 08:00PM Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2022 and Nov 6, 2022) -0.000681
    Oct 31, 2022 04:00AM In the next edition of the Times Higher Education (THE) World University Rankings, will there be 6 or more Chinese universities with a research score of 60 or greater in computer science? -0.002525
    Sep 26, 2022 04:00PM Will the Brothers of Italy Party (FdI) win the most seats in the 2022 Italian general election? -0.010278
    Aug 1, 2022 01:52PM Will the Council of the European Union announce sanctions on the provision of cloud services to Russia before 31 July 2022? 0.0
    Jul 30, 2022 04:00AM Will the U.S. Senate vote on the American Innovation and Choice Online Act before 30 July 2022? -0.000014
    Jul 29, 2022 01:55PM How much revenue will Intel report for the second quarter of 2022? 0.001933
    Jul 28, 2022 07:10PM Will the U.S. Congress pass a tax credit for semiconductor manufacturing or design before 1 January 2023? -0.003058
    Jul 23, 2022 04:18PM Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022? 0.020636
    Jul 23, 2022 04:17PM Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2021 and Jun 1, 2022) 0.006824
    Jul 21, 2022 01:00PM How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for June 2022? -0.020923
    Jul 6, 2022 03:59AM What percentage of Arizona will be facing severe drought or worse on 5 July 2022? 0.028794
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