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Star Commenter - Feb 2025



Why do you think you're right?
Advanced AI makes this less implausible, but I still think this is unlikely. I think there is a much higher chance that something with the potential to mutate into something that could cause an event of high consequence is somehow released (either on purpose or accidentally), but then ultimately does not end up crossing the threshold set out in the question. Similarly, it could be that something with the potential to spread is released, but is contained or "dies out". I would estimate an 15% chance of something with potential getting out, but maybe only about 1/3 of the time that it hits the threshold described given that it gets out (advanced AI tools might give us better / smarter alerts on this type of thing). That leaves me with about 5%.
Why might you be wrong?
Maybe new technologies will make this easier than I'm imagining.

Why do you think you're right?
It seems like things here have gotten quiet. I don't know enough to completely rule out military actions, but it seems like unless something happens to disrupt the current status (like a crisis or shock), nothing will change. Attacking oil wells seems unlikely at this point, but more plausible than a ground invasion.
Why might you be wrong?

Why do you think you're right?
As others have noted, the announced November elections might not even happen. It seems pretty unlikely that they would happen before then. I'll go ahead and put 0% on this one.
Why might you be wrong?
Maybe something unexpected like a revolution will happen.

Why do you think you're right?
things are drifting apart now... even great news for NVIDIA and bad news for Apple might not be enough to turn things around.
Why might you be wrong?

Why do you think you're right?
As others have noted, the situation in Georgia has cooled down. I would have increased my estimate if it hadn't by now. Meanwhile, I'll stay where I am for everything else as well to wait and see how the negotiations start to turn.
Why do you think you're right?
We're drifting further and further. Things could turn around, but with so many headwinds (including the disapointment around GPT-4.5), it seems that even a bull market lasting for weeks wouldn't turn things around.
Why might you be wrong?
Maybe if another AI product excites the market during a simultaneous rally for other reasons, I could imagine NVIDIA outpacing AAPL and MSFT enough to make this resolve as true.