JonathanMann

I'll stay where I am for now. Any one of these invasions would be a risky decision as it would open up new things that could go unexpectedly badly for Putin. On the other hand, it probably depends a lot on how things go in Ukraine. If Putin sees more success there (even if not the kind he originally envisioned), he might feel like he doesn't have a lot more to lose since a lot of the most painful sanctions for Russia are probably in place already.

As per my last forecast, in spite of how unlikely it seems at present, I'm staying at 2%. This would be a win for next administration in the United States and, as I said before, an announcement is a much lower bar than actually normalizing relations (and an announcement is probably all we would get for a long time). Still confident, both the Trump and Harris hypothetical administrations would try to get progress here.

I mostly agree with @Rene 's recent comment that the battle is over. I'm at 1% not for death by natural causes, but because there are probably a lot of people who would like to depose Maduro if the opportunity arises, but it would require a series of unlikely events for this to unfold.

I was higher previously based on my own "model uncertainty", but after reflection, I'm comfortable lowering to 1%.  Part of this is due to time and another part is that I think this is unlikely to resolve positively on a technicality. 

I haven't heard anything about this, so I'm going to lower again due to time. Even if there is political pressure to do something, as per my original forecast, I expect there is a good chance that the lab would simply be repurposed to "safe" research. 

lowering Saudi Arabia to zero. I agree with @VidurKapur 's recent comment. 

As I noted in my previous forecast NVDA and AAPL are highly correlated (and both are up today). As I said previously "The Fed could lower interest rates or some other event could trigger a market surge where NVDA with its higher beta (1.75) rapidly outpaces MSFT (1.17) and AAPL (1.18) " and it looks like that is happening to a degree as NVDA is up about a percentage point more than AAPL at the time of this writing. I'll stay reasonably close to my original model, but lower slightly due to time and due to the fact that NVDA is still has a lot of ground it would need to make up.

As others have noted, with the strong July data there would need to be a downtrend in the next few months to bring things below bin 4. While I mentioned in an earlier forecast that this does tend to happen in the later part of the year in expectation based on historical data, that's just the average of a range of possible trends, so it seems that the most likely outcome will be that we end the year within bin 4.

Lowering everything with time. If any of these were going to happen it seems likely there would be signs of something. 

Lowering again in the absence of new information and upon further reflection. I actually think this is less likely than I originally anticipated given the time window. As to my earlier comments, this probably depends on the adoption of O-RAN technologies.