Lowering with time. In order for construction to begin, there will need to be negotiations which could take some time. If anyone here knows how long negotiations usually take and how long it is from when they become public to when base construction begins that would be helpful. Meanwhile, in the absence of information (a quick search revealed nothing new from my last forecast), so I'm lowering.
-0.286765
Relative Brier Score
180
Forecasts
26
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 7 | 21 | 206 | 180 | 720 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 12 | 11 | 169 |
| Questions Forecasted | 7 | 18 | 42 | 32 | 96 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 3 | 31 | 26 | 142 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
37%
(-1%)
Yes
63%
(+1%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
0%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(+26%)
Yes
50%
(-26%)
No
As per other comments, NVDA is now on top, but it is highly correlated with other top companies and also volatile. As per my first forecast, if the market does relatively well, I expect NVDA to outpace its competitors due to it's higher beta, but in a down market, I expect it to fair poorly. Another concern is that there are rumors that AI companies are hitting a wall in terms of scaling. I do not expect this to be a permanent situation, but it could cool the demand for NVDA products within the time table of this question. Finally, NVDA is highly dependent on TSMC. If there is a credible threat of a disruption there (even if it doesn't materialize within the time table of this question), it could have ripple effects that could impact NVDA (although it seems most have not yet put these pieces together yet).
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-3%)
Yes
99%
(+3%)
No
Lowering with time. It seems like Israel and Hamas are still too far apart to have a pause. Also, as per @VidurKapur 's comment, at this point, it seems like the US will not be a factor until after the inauguration.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 24%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
1%
(-3%)
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
99%
(+3%)
More than or equal to 28%
Updating on the recently released September data. Under normal circumstances, I would expect the final bin to be almost 100%, but adding in the outside chance there's some kind of data change or revision, I'll leave 1% for now.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-2%)
Kharkiv
0%
(0%)
Kyiv
0%
(0%)
Odesa
As others have pointed out, it seems like a better bet for Putin would be to wait for the next administration before attempting an expanded campaigns. In any event, it seems there isn't enough time left to mount a major offensive and I would expect to see a buildup before the event.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(-8%)
Yes
85%
(+8%)
No
Lowering with time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 14, 2024 to May 14, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
There are a lot of low-probability events that could cause an end to Maduro's presidency (health, assassination, internal revolt), but adding them all up, I'm barely over half a percent. As time passes, I'll probably pass the 99.5% threshold at some point next month and round this up to 100%.