I agree with @DKC , @404_NOT_FOUND , and others that this could be made much more interesting and informative if limited to accession protocols.
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
27
Forecasts
8
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 7 | 191 | 27 | 770 |
| Comments | 0 | 9 | 39 | 27 | 201 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 6 | 43 | 18 | 108 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 4 | 38 | 8 | 156 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Badge
Star Commenter - Feb 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Comment
New Comment
I'll echo the idea others have suggested that forecasting on whether a ceasefire will be declared in the first place might be more informative for the purposes of those posing the question.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Advanced AI makes this less implausible, but I still think this is unlikely. I think there is a much higher chance that something with the potential to mutate into something that could cause an event of high consequence is somehow released (either on purpose or accidentally), but then ultimately does not end up crossing the threshold set out in the question. Similarly, it could be that something with the potential to spread is released, but is contained or "dies out". I would estimate an 15% chance of something with potential getting out, but maybe only about 1/3 of the time that it hits the threshold described given that it gets out (advanced AI tools might give us better / smarter alerts on this type of thing). That leaves me with about 5%.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Maybe new technologies will make this easier than I'm imagining.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
2%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Why do you think you're right?
It seems like things here have gotten quiet. I don't know enough to completely rule out military actions, but it seems like unless something happens to disrupt the current status (like a crisis or shock), nothing will change. Attacking oil wells seems unlikely at this point, but more plausible than a ground invasion.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
My first guess as to why I might end up being wrong on this would be some technicality that causes one of these to resolve true when it actually isn't in spirit.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
As others have noted, the announced November elections might not even happen. It seems pretty unlikely that they would happen before then. I'll go ahead and put 0% on this one.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Maybe something unexpected like a revolution will happen.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
18%
(-10%)
Yes
82%
(+10%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
things are drifting apart now... even great news for NVIDIA and bad news for Apple might not be enough to turn things around.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There will probably be a lot of AI news in the next few months so that could keep NVIDIA at the forefront of investors' minds.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
3%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
As others have noted, the situation in Georgia has cooled down. I would have increased my estimate if it hadn't by now. Meanwhile, I'll stay where I am for everything else as well to wait and see how the negotiations start to turn.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I expect to have more information in a few weeks. Right now, I can only speculate about how the negotiations will go and what might happen as a result.
Files
I doubt if the frozen conflicts are ever resolved in my lifetime.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
We're drifting further and further. Things could turn around, but with so many headwinds (including the disapointment around GPT-4.5), it seems that even a bull market lasting for weeks wouldn't turn things around.
Why might you be wrong?
Maybe if another AI product excites the market during a simultaneous rally for other reasons, I could imagine NVIDIA outpacing AAPL and MSFT enough to make this resolve as true.