JonathanMann

Jonathan Mann
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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Jan 31, 2025 05:00AM Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024? -0.020123
    Jan 11, 2025 05:01AM Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025? 0.000284
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024? 0.000276
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated? -0.005118
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024? -0.002671
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")? -0.000098
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024? -0.000094
    Dec 1, 2024 05:01AM Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days? -0.021528
    Jul 18, 2024 04:00AM For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%? -0.000022
    Jul 6, 2024 04:00PM Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 6, 2024 and Jul 6, 2024) 0.00184
    Jul 1, 2024 04:01PM Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024? 0.0
    Jul 1, 2024 04:01AM Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024? -0.000009
    Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador? -0.005961
    Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024? -0.064167
    Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI? -0.206416
    May 1, 2024 04:01AM Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024? -0.000042
    May 1, 2024 04:01AM Will the Global Protest Tracker record a significant antigovernment protest involving 10,000 or more participants in Thailand between April 2023 and April 2024? 0.0
    May 1, 2024 04:01AM Will Dina Boluarte cease to be president of Peru through an irregular transition before 1 May 2024? -0.00001
    Apr 24, 2024 01:10AM Will the U.S. Congress pass a military aid package supporting Ukraine worth at least $10 billion before 1 May 2024? -0.004563
    Apr 2, 2024 03:00PM Will BP or Shell resume oil shipments through the Red Sea before 31 March 2024? -0.000387
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