Forecasted Questions
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 10, 2024 01:53PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Sep 10, 2024 01:53PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 25% | Sep 10, 2024 to Mar 10, 2025 | Oct 10, 2024 | 54% | -29% | -1% |
No | 75% | Sep 10, 2024 to Mar 10, 2025 | Oct 10, 2024 | 46% | +29% | +1% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 08:02PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Sep 27, 2024 08:02PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Estonia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +1% |
Latvia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Lithuania | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts
14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 08:03PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Sep 27, 2024 08:03PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Togo | 15% | 33% | -18% | +3% |
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | 30% | 40% | -10% | +1% |
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 08:03PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Sep 27, 2024 08:03PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells | 1% | 4% | -3% | +0% |
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 08:05PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Sep 27, 2024 08:05PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 18% | Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025 | Oct 27, 2024 | 16% | +2% | +6% |
No | 82% | Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025 | Oct 27, 2024 | 84% | -2% | -6% |
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 08:05PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Sep 27, 2024 08:05PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025 | Oct 27, 2024 | 6% | -5% | -2% |
No | 99% | Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025 | Oct 27, 2024 | 94% | +5% | +2% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 08:05PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Sep 27, 2024 08:05PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 08:06PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Sep 27, 2024 08:06PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kharkiv | 6% | 4% | +2% | +0% |
Kyiv | 3% | 1% | +2% | +0% |
Odesa | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts
18 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 08:06PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Sep 27, 2024 08:06PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 96% | -95% | +0% |
No | 99% | 4% | +95% | +0% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts
16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 28, 2024 06:59PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Sep 28, 2024 06:59PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 5% | Sep 28, 2024 to Sep 28, 2025 | Oct 28, 2024 | 87% | -82% | +7% |
No | 95% | Sep 28, 2024 to Sep 28, 2025 | Oct 28, 2024 | 13% | +82% | -7% |