Forecasted Questions
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 05:12PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 29, 2024 05:12PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | Sep 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2025 | Dec 29, 2024 | 5% | +5% | +0% |
| No | 90% | Sep 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2025 | Dec 29, 2024 | 95% | -5% | +0% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 02:12PM UTC
(9 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 02:12PM UTC
(9 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 78% | 41% | +37% | +1% |
| No | 22% | 59% | -37% | -1% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
28 Forecasts
28 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 06:16PM UTC
(5 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 06:16PM UTC
(5 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 84% | -79% | +2% |
| No | 95% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 16% | +79% | -2% |