LogicCurve

Karen
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1st Generation Superforecaster® circa 2013. IARPA ACE Competition - #2 Leader Board, circa 2011 - 12

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Forecasted Questions
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Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 12:42PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 26% Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 57%
No 74% Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 43%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
 10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 08, 2024 08:15PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 3% Nov 8, 2024 to May 8, 2025 Dec 8, 2024 7%
No 97% Nov 8, 2024 to May 8, 2025 Dec 8, 2024 93%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
 16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 08, 2024 08:26PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Togo 15% 24%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations 30% 39%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 08, 2024 08:35PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 63% 35%
No 37% 65%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 16, 2024 05:30PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 1% 2%
Latvia 1% 1%
Lithuania 1% 2%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 16, 2024 05:31PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
 21 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 16, 2024 05:31PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 97%
No 99% 3%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 16, 2024 05:31PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana 1% 3%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells 1% 5%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo 1% 1%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo 0% 1%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 18, 2024 11:54AM UTC
(4 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 65% Nov 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2025 Feb 18, 2025 12%
No 35% Nov 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2025 Feb 18, 2025 88%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 21, 2024 09:28PM UTC
(22 hours ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kharkiv 1% 3%
Kyiv 1% 1%
Odesa 0% 2%
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