Forecasted Questions
What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 04:03PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Sep 29, 2024 04:03PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 24% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 24% but less than 26% | 0% | 1% | -1% | +1% |
| More than or equal to 26% but less than 28% | 18% | 4% | +14% | -19% |
| More than or equal to 28% | 82% | 94% | -12% | +19% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts
14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 01:13PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 01:13PM UTC
(28 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 03:41PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 03:41PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | 36% | -22% | -3% |
| No | 86% | 64% | +22% | +3% |
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 03:41PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 03:41PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana | 0% | 3% | -3% | +0% |
| Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells | 2% | 5% | -3% | +0% |
| Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(8 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(8 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 05:18PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 05:18PM UTC
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 31% | +19% | +13% |
| No | 50% | 69% | -19% | -13% |
Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(8 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(8 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 05:31PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 05:31PM UTC
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 90% | 37% | +53% | -15% |
| No | 10% | 63% | -53% | +15% |
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 08, 2024 04:17PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Nov 08, 2024 04:17PM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| No | 100% | 100% | +0% | 0% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts
14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 08, 2024 04:17PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Nov 08, 2024 04:17PM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts
14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2024 04:39AM UTC
(12 days ago)
Nov 11, 2024 04:39AM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 98% | 99% | -1% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2024 04:40AM UTC
(12 days ago)
Nov 11, 2024 04:40AM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 5% | -4% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 95% | +4% | +0% |