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Definitions |
Israel's continuing escalation of war against Hezbollah.
Moving down due to Ukraine receipt and use of F-16s. Continued drone and missile use by both sides keeping demand on air defense systems.
Slightly increasing due to expanded Israeli action in Lebanon.
Line of reason. Should Iran decide to get involved to attempt to limit or stop Israeli action in Lebanon, Israel has, and is, showing, no signs of limiting its attacks where it perceives a threat. Such as assassinating Hamas leader in Tehran.
All signs point to Israel and Hamas refusing to negotiate on any further. With Israel potentially opening second front with Hezbollah and US administration entering the lame duck period it appears no diplomatic progress will be made in the next 4-5 months.
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-deal-unlikely-before-end-of-bidens-term-u-s-officials-say-efc21510?mod=hp_lead_pos1
Shifting down due to no movement by Venezuela.