Confirmed previous forecast
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Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 9 | 28 | 190 | 148 | 376 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 97 |
| Questions Forecasted | 9 | 21 | 38 | 28 | 59 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 5 | 18 | 13 | 42 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
14%
(0%)
Yes
86%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
52%
(-14%)
Togo
20%
(-13%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 24%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
18%
(-35%)
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
82%
(+35%)
More than or equal to 28%
Data shows well within the highest bin.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
Israel's continuing escalation of war against Hezbollah.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-2%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
6%
(-4%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Moving down due to Ukraine receipt and use of F-16s. Continued drone and missile use by both sides keeping demand on air defense systems.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
13%
(+3%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
87%
(-3%)
No
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
Slightly increasing due to expanded Israeli action in Lebanon.
Line of reason. Should Iran decide to get involved to attempt to limit or stop Israeli action in Lebanon, Israel has, and is, showing, no signs of limiting its attacks where it perceives a threat. Such as assassinating Hamas leader in Tehran.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-23%)
Yes
98%
(+23%)
No
All signs point to Israel and Hamas refusing to negotiate on any further. With Israel potentially opening second front with Hezbollah and US administration entering the lame duck period it appears no diplomatic progress will be made in the next 4-5 months.
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-deal-unlikely-before-end-of-bidens-term-u-s-officials-say-efc21510?mod=hp_lead_pos1
Files
Shifting down due to no movement by Venezuela.