124th
Accuracy Rank

NukePirate

About:
Show more

-0.042269

Relative Brier Score

3

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 5 24 193 174 402
Comments 1 1 6 4 98
Questions Forecasted 5 23 37 30 61
Upvotes on Comments By This User 1 2 18 15 44
 Definitions
New Badge
NukePirate
earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Oct 2024

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction

5 yrs is forever in terms of technological advances.
With multiple Chinese companies already pursuing the technology and no obstacle that is permanent I start the probability that only one future world in 10 will see a Chinese company to reach this threshold.

Files
New Prediction

Initial forecast. Will update with more analysis.

Files
New Prediction
NukePirate
made their 10th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
0% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
100% (0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
NukePirate
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
2% (0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0% (0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
1% (0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
NukePirate
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
95% (+20%)
Yes
Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025
5% (-20%)
No
Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025

Pending analysis of recent Israel strikes into Iran.

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New Prediction

Confirming forecast.

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New Prediction
NukePirate
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Oct 19, 2024 to Apr 19, 2025
100% (0%)
No
Oct 19, 2024 to Apr 19, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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