Initial forecast. Will update with more analysis.
0.35106
Relative Brier Score
174
Forecasts
15
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 5 | 24 | 193 | 174 | 402 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 98 |
| Questions Forecasted | 5 | 23 | 37 | 30 | 61 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 2 | 18 | 15 | 44 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Oct 2024
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
100%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
2%
(0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0%
(0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
1%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
14%
(0%)
Yes
86%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
95%
(+20%)
Yes
Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025
5%
(-20%)
No
Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025
Pending analysis of recent Israel strikes into Iran.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirming forecast.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 19, 2024 to Apr 19, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Oct 19, 2024 to Apr 19, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
5 yrs is forever in terms of technological advances.
With multiple Chinese companies already pursuing the technology and no obstacle that is permanent I start the probability that only one future world in 10 will see a Chinese company to reach this threshold.